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Analytical Framework · Transparency Report
How RepubliQ
Builds Intelligence
Our assessments are built on transparent, reproducible frameworks. Every score is derived from primary government sources, multilateral databases, and peer-reviewed research — documented here for client verification.
Jump to
57
Countries
40+
Indicators
8
SPI Pillars
6
Modules
State Power Index

The SPI is a composite index measuring the underlying capacity of a state to project power, sustain stability, and influence regional outcomes. It synthesises eight structural pillars into a single score ranging from 0–100.

Unlike event-driven risk indices, the SPI measures structural state capacity — the enduring features that determine a country's strategic ceiling. It is updated annually with quarterly adjustments for significant structural shifts.

Score Formula
SPI = Σ(Pillar_Score × Pillar_Weight)

Each pillar is scored 0–20, normalised against the regional maximum. Weights reflect the relative importance of each dimension to long-term state capacity.
Weight Distribution
8 Pillars · Total 100%
Tier Classification:
■ Tier 1 (65+): Regional Dominant Power
■ Tier 2 (45–64): Major Regional Power
■ Tier 3 (30–44): Significant State Actor
■ Tier 4 (<30): Limited State Capacity
The Eight Pillars
Click any pillar to expand indicators & sources
Military Power Score

MARS v3 synthesises six dimensions of military capability into a single Military Power Score (MPS) ranging from 0–100. The framework distinguishes between raw capability (hardware, personnel) and effective capability (doctrine, experience, external support).

The MPS is calibrated against the regional maximum rather than global, making it analytically relevant for assessing intra-regional balance rather than global military ranking.

Power Classification
DOMINANT
MPS 50+. Decisive conventional superiority. Capable of sustained regional force projection.
MAJOR
MPS 25–49. Significant conventional capability. Able to conduct offensive operations within sub-region.
SIGNIFICANT
MPS 10–24. Credible defensive capability. Limited offensive reach beyond own borders.
EMERGING
MPS <10. Basic territorial defence. Limited capacity beyond internal security functions.
MARS Dimensions
Six analytical dimensions · Click to expand

RepubliQ Global uses only primary and peer-reviewed secondary sources. All data is cross-referenced across at least two independent sources before inclusion. Proprietary estimates are clearly flagged and limited to cases where primary data is unavailable.

Update Cycle
Annual
Full SPI recalculation. New SIPRI data integration. IISS Military Balance update. World Bank indicators refresh.
Quarterly
Governance adjustments for significant political events. Economic data updates. Conflict intensity recalibration.
Monthly
MARS FMF/FMS update from DSCA notifications. Maritime incident database refresh. ACLED event integration.
Weekly
AYAAN narrative intelligence tracking. Conflict event monitoring. Breaking developments flagged to subscribers.
Quality Assurance
Cross-Source Validation
Every indicator is verified against a minimum of two independent sources. Significant discrepancies trigger manual review before inclusion.
Analyst Review Layer
All algorithmic outputs are reviewed by regional analysts with direct country experience. Qualitative adjustments are documented and flagged.
Backtesting
Frameworks are backtested against historical events to measure predictive validity. Model performance reports available to enterprise subscribers.
Limitations Disclosure
Where data is sparse, estimated, or subject to significant uncertainty, this is explicitly documented in the relevant country profiles.